The effects of future climate change are predicted to include dramatic change in rainfall patterns, change in temperature and fire risk, increases in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events such as storms, droughts and floods, and a rise in sea level. The future adequacy of existing reserves and management is therefore a critical issue, as climate change may reduce or alter the distribution of flora and fauna within and beyond the geographic or altitudinal boundaries in which they are currently protected (Hughes & Westoby 1994, Parmesan 1996, Gascon et al. 2000).

The immediate effects of climate change in forested regions are likely to produce changes in ecosystem function and processes governing community composition and structure, followed by shifts in tree line margins and boundaries between forest types and ecotones (Luckman & Kavanagh 2000, Hilbert et al. 2001, Klasner & Fagre 2002, Kullman 2002). Change in geographic, altitudinal, and seasonal patterns is likely to accelerate, and some researchers have indicated that future changes in biodiversity may occur at the landscape level in as little time as decades (Hannah et al. 2002). Predictive models have indicated that large changes in forest distribution and extent may occur with even minor climate change (Hilbert et al. 2001). For instance, over three quarters of the area of Canadian national parks may experience shifts in dominant vegetation as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels increase (Hannah et al. 2002). As another example, the large (35-240km) northern geographic shift observed in the distribution of 63% of non-migratory European butterflies alone over the last century (as compared to 3% shifting south) illustrates the scale of potential climate-change effects over a broad taxonomic group (Parmesan et al. 1999). Such distributional changes will not only affect animal taxa of conservation significance, but also beneficial and pest species as well (Harrington et al. 2001).

Previous workers studying Tasmanian vegetation have noted that the rate of floristic change is not constant with change in altitude (Ogden & Powell 1979, Noble 1981, Kirkpatrick & Brown 1987, Pyrke 1989, Bridle & Kirkpatrick 1994, Kirkpatrick et al. 1996). Discontinuities and narrow ecotones have been recognised globally in both flora and fauna (Rahbek 1995, Sanders 2002). Both the tree line and the level of the cloud/mist layer may play an important role in some of these patterns (Kirkpatrick et al. 1996, Pounds et al. 1997, Hilbert et al. 2001).

This is the parent FT “icon” project for the following projects:

WRA043 Long-term floristic monitoring along an altitudinal transect on Mount Weld.

WRA068 Bird monitoring along an altitudinal transect on Mount Weld.

WRA077 Invertebrate monitoring on an altitudinal transect on Mount Weld.

WRA096 Mount Weld altitudinal transect monitoring plot management plan.

Grove, S.J. (2004). Warra – Mount Weld altitudinal transect ecotonal and baseline altitudinal monitoring plots (BAMPs): establishment report. Technical Report no 17/2004. Forestry Tasmania, Hobart.

Powledge, F. (2002). A look back at the International Biodiversity Observation Year. BioScience 52: 1070-1079.